01918cam a2200277 4500 268494770 TxAuBib 20080129120000.0 060901s2007||||||||||||||||||||||||eng|u 2006051093 9781400063512 acid-free paper 1400063515 acid-free paper (OCoLC)71833470 DLC DLC BAKER BTCTA GK8 OCO C#P IXA YDXCP VP@ JQQ HNW CWJ TxAuBib Taleb, Nassim. The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. 1st ed. New York : Random House, 2007. xxviii, 366 p. : ill. ; 25 cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index. Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans. 20080129. Uncertainty (Information theory) Social aspects. Forecasting. TXEDR